Jobs: Blue-collar Surges while White-collar Shrinks

For decades, white-collar jobs were seen as the pinnacle of economic security. But in 2026, those roles are under siege from automation and artificial intelligence. Entry-level analysts, paralegals, customer support staff, and junior consultants are among the hardest hit. A McKinsey analysis estimates that 12 million U.S. workers may need to switch occupations by 2030 due to AI and automation, with the steepest losses in office support and administrative roles.¹

In contrast, blue-collar work is experiencing a renaissance. According to the National Association of Manufacturers, 600,000 manufacturing jobs were unfilled in 2025, and shortages could double by the end of the decade.² Infrastructure investment, the clean energy boom, and reshoring of supply chains are fueling this demand. Wages in skilled trades are rising faster than in professional services: construction and extraction roles saw an 8% average pay increase in 2025, surpassing many white-collar fields.³

Gen Z is responding with pragmatism. Surveys show that nearly half of Gen Z high school graduates are considering trade schools instead of four-year colleges.⁴ The reasons are clear: trades offer shorter training times, less debt, and immunity from AI disruption. Electricians, welders, HVAC technicians, and solar installers cannot be replaced by chatbots or algorithms.

The return-to-office (RTO) debate shows no signs of resolution in 2026. After years of experimentation, many employers are hardening their positions. According to Kastle Systems data, office occupancy in major U.S. cities averaged just 53% in late 2025, yet companies continue to mandate increased in-office attendance.

Executives cite collaboration, culture, and productivity as reasons for RTO. JPMorgan Chase, Amazon, and Meta have all rolled out stricter in-office requirements, with penalties for noncompliance. Yet workers remain resistant. A 2025 Gallup survey found that 70% of remote-capable employees prefer hybrid or fully remote work, while only 30% want to be mostly in-office.

This disconnect breeds tension. Some employees comply but disengage, while others quit. The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) reports that 1 in 4 workers who left their jobs in 2025 cited return-to-office mandates as a factor. For working mothers, caregivers, and those in rural areas, rigid RTO policies are particularly disruptive.

Companies are experimenting with compromises. Some are offering “team-based RTO,” allowing departments to set their own schedules. Others are redesigning offices as collaboration hubs, focusing on brainstorming, training, and social connection rather than daily desk work.

The employment situation in the United States continues to worsen as new layoffs mount and hiring continues to slow.

According to today’s JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job openings fell to the lowest level since December of 2020, and there are now more unemployed people in the United States than there are job openings. This last occurred during March of 2021.

During July, total job openings fell to 7.18 million, slightly below the total number of unemployed persons—7.23 million—for the month. Perhaps more concerning than the gap between the two is the trend: job openings are trending downward while the total number of unemployed persons is trending upward. During July, the total number of unemployed persons hit a 46-month high.

To get a more complete picture, it is also helpful to include the total number of “discouraged workers.” These are workers who have given up searching for a job but say they would like a job. During July, these discouraged workers totaled 1.75 million, meaning the real number of unemployed persons in July was 8.98 million, rather than 7.23 million. If we look at this more complete picture of unemployment, we find that the total number of unemployed persons has been larger than the number of job openings for the past sixteen months.

If you've been tracking job descriptions over the past year, you've probably noticed that AI skills are often now baseline requirements. In the Dice October Jobs Report, fifty percent of all U.S. tech job postings now require AI skills as of September 2025. That's up from 47% just one month earlier in August. Even more striking, this represents a 98% jump in AI skill requirements compared to September 2024.

The message from the data: AI integration has moved from experimental side projects to essential infrastructure across the technology sector. If you're planning your next move in 2026, you need to account for this shift.

The tech hiring landscape showed positive momentum in September, with tech job postings growing 12.9% month-over-month. That's one of the strongest hiring signals we've seen in 2025, suggesting companies are gaining confidence to expand their technology teams heading into Q4. There is a caveat, though. Job postings remained down 2.5% year-over-year, a reminder that the market is still working through the broader tech correction that began in late 2022.

AI Is Essential, Operational Maturity Is Key

The macro trend shaping tech hiring right now extends beyond AI adoption to how companies are approaching growth itself. The industry has shifted from a "growth-at-all-costs" mentality to prioritizing sustainable, scalable operations. Companies are investing in the foundational capabilities they need for long-term success: comprehensive monitoring, structured implementation, thorough documentation, and effective cross-team collaboration.

One of our clients is a rotational molding manufacturer that has tried to use "specialized" agencies in the past and received nothing but empty promises.

They needed to fill a Rotational Mold Supervisor position to lead their production team. Due to their location, we knew the role would require relocation.

All we needed was a few weeks and one candidate completing an on-site interview to get an extended and accepted offer. Three and a half weeks (including an out-of-town on-site interview ) from the Kick-off call to an accepted offer.

How could this situation get any better?

Well... this client used our Fractional Recruiter Model and SAVED our client $15,300 versus what they would have paid a "specialized" agency. A 7% fee vs 25% fee.

Many "specialized" agencies claim to be the "experts" in their field, but very few of them actually follow through and back up their claims.

At OTHR, we specialize in filling challenging roles and are "THE" experts in producing results at a great value.

This isn’t a new problem, but it is a persistent one. And it’s not just about today’s numbers—it’s about what they reveal.

1. Today’s Labor Gap: Open Jobs, Not Enough Takers

Yes, manufacturers are still struggling to hire. Despite high demand, strong wages in many regions, and clear career pathways, employers simply can’t find enough qualified (and willing) workers to fill roles like:

• Machine operators
• Maintenance technicians
• CNC machinists
• Production specialists

This shortage isn’t because those jobs don’t exist. They do—and they’re essential to keeping our supply chains moving and our economy stable.

2. What Happened in 2022!? A Spike Fueled by Workforce Preferences

The chart also shows an unprecedented spike in job openings in April 2022, reaching nearly 1 million. Was that due to massive industry expansion?

Not exactly. That spike was largely driven by:

• Pandemic-era retirements and resignations (the “Great Resignation”)
• A shift in jobseeker preferences toward remote and hybrid work
• Skills mismatches, as many available workers lacked the training for in-demand roles

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until USDL-25-1344

8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, September 5, 2025

Technical information:

Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps

Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- AUGUST 2025

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in August (+22,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.3 percent, also changed little in August. A job gain in health care was partially offset bylosses in federal government and in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

We just wrapped up a senior-level leadership role for a manufacturing company that provides advanced components to the Columbia-class nuclear Submarines. We came on board after a "specialized" agency was not able to find the right candidate. These types of specialized roles really highlight "traditional agencies" weaknesses. When you rely on "pipelines" to fill a role, you struggle with specialized roles. Why? Specific technical roles require specific technical people, and they are not sitting around waiting for a recruiter to place them at an employer.

With OTHR leading the charge, we filled this role in 136 hours with our Fractional (hourly) recruiting model. Not only did the client find the candidate they needed, but we also saved our client $18,700 when compared to the 25% placement the other agency would have charged them.

If you are still using specialized agencies that charge 20-30% of the yearly salary, we have a better process and will deliver better results.

Compare your current recruiting costs to OTHR with our Cost Calculator

https://www.onthehookrecruiting.com/cost-calculator

I had a call with a founder last week.

He had just secured a significant Series A, and their office was energized, but they were also feeling a new kind of pressure.

He told me, "We’ve got new capital, but now we're under pressure to scale. I need to hire 5 senior engineers and a head of R&D in the next quarter. The VCs are also watching our burn rate, so I can't afford to sink a ton of money into recruitment costs. In my experience, agencies are expensive and unpredictable."

His dilemma was clear.

He needed the expertise of a seasoned recruiter to hit his aggressive hiring goals, but the traditional staffing agency model felt like a direct threat to his company’s fresh capital. He was stuck between two bad options: moving slowly and risking a stalled product, or moving fast and risking his budget.

I told him there was a third option.

We spent the next 10 minutes discussing our fractional recruiter model.

I explained that he didn't need to pay a huge fee for every single placement.

How much should you pay a recruiting agency for a Cost Accountant in Chicago!?

If you do a contract to hire, it will most likely be 6 months at a 65-75% mark-up. Once the 6 months are up, you are slapped with a conversion fee to take them on permanently. If you want to do a direct hire from day one, you're probably paying 25% or more.

Their script NEVER changes, and that is why they are so easy to beat every time we compete against them.

How did On The Hook Recruiting do on the role? We filled it in 27 hours and saved our clients $22,300 in the process.

Another happy client who switched from your traditional staffing process to On The Hook Recruiting's fractional process.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

Are you going to ride a horse and buggy home from work today?

Probably not... because better options exist.

We just filled a Demand Planner position for one of our clients.

Any other agency would have charged them (at least) $12,400.00 MORE, assuming a 20% placement fee.

$12,400.00 saved on only ONE hire.

Legacy contingency recruiting is the horse and buggy of professional services.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

Two Positions Filled:

$25,800.00 Cost Savings = 55% Reduction in Cost to Hire

Our auto/agricultural manufacturing client had been struggling for months and months to fill two challenging positions (Design Engineer & Product Engineer) at their HQ, which is about one hour away from the closest metropolitan area.

We filled BOTH positions in less than two months from kick-off to candidate start date. Not only did we fill the positions, but we saved them 55% vs what other recruiters would have charged them.

On The Hook Recruiting Total Cost vs. 25% Placement Fee Cost:

On The Hook Recruiting: $21,200.00

25% Placement Fee other agencies would have charged: $47,000.00

Total Savings: $25,800.00

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

$5,400.00 > $20,750.00

Let me explain...

Our Design Engineer just accepted an offer at an automotive manufacturing company after the position had been open for MONTHS prior to us partnering with them. The client would have paid $20,750.00 (25% fee) to other staffing agencies to fill the same position. Instead, they used our Hourly Recruiting Model and SAVED $15,350.00.

Do you know any manufacturing companies that could benefit from saving $15,350.00 on ONE hire?

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

A prototype machinist with Tool and Die, and needs to have programming experience. This skill set is tough to find and one that you will probably pay a premium for if you use an agency to recruit for it.

Well, we found that unicorn for our client and saved them $15,200 in the process when compared to our competition's pricing structure.

How are we doing it? On The Hook Recruiting does not charge a percentage of the yearly salary, we operate on an hourly. Think of us an "On-Demand" recruiter that you can leverage when needed and the results speak for themselves.

We have partnered with over 50 clients nationwide and our total cost savings to those 50 clients will exceed the $1,000,000 mark by year's end. Isn't it time you experienced a better way to hire?

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

Data is king. When you work with OTHR, we provide you with a comprehensive overview of your recruiting costs. Why? Well, in many cases the results are staggering. For any of my connections who need assistance with hiring for their manufacturing facility, here are the type of cost savings we can provide you with.

OTHR Client Q1 & Q2 Statistics:

20 hires across sales, customer service, engineering, accounting, plant maintenance, and production.

The average cost per employee through OTHR is $4,680.

Our competition's cost per employee would have been $9,496.80 with a 20% direct fee.

That is a total cost savings of $96,336 overall or a $4,816 average cost savings per hire.

Everyone we recruit is exclusive to your organization, we meet weekly with you to share all the data and progress on your roles, and most importantly, we keep your costs low.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

I have to give a shout-out to our skilled trades team for the work they did for one of our clients in Ohio. About a month ago, this client came to us looking for help with filling three tool and die openings. If you have ever worked on hiring that skill set, you know how challenging it can be.

Using our Hourly Recruiting Model, we filled all three positions in 105 hours of work. That is an average cost of $3,500 per hire!

I will let that sink in for a minute.

If our client had used a traditional 20% of the yearly salary model, they would have paid $14,600 per hire. We saved them $33,300.

We developed this model specifically for clients who are tired of paying large recruiting fees and value a true recruiting partnership.

Want to learn more about how On The Hook Recruiting can help you? Let's connect, I would be happy to walk you through our approach and how it can bring an immediate impact to your business.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

We get a lot of roles that have been open for ages and worked on by other recruiters or "specialty firms."

We took on one of these roles recently for a client in Ohio. The position was for a Senior Level Purchasing Manager and the client had an extensive list of requirements. After being open for months and having two separate specialty firms try to fill it, Ashley Lambert was able to fill this position in 82 hours!

That one hire saved our client $26,800 when compared to a 25% placement fee the "specialty firm" wanted to charge.

Time and time again, our approach is able to save our clients money and run circles around other agencies.

If you're struggling with a particular position, I would welcome the chance to walk you through our approach and how it can impact your business.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

Do you struggle to find skilled trades workers?

Here are three recent examples from one client. All examples are compared to a 20% placement.

3rd shift Production Supervisor: It took OTHR 58 hours to fill this role at a cost of $5,800. That is a $11,600 cost savings!

Maintenance Supervisor: It took OTHR 72 hours to fill this role at a cost of $7,200. That is a $17,000 cost savings!

Maintenance Tech: It took OTHR 55 hours to fill this at a cost of $5,500. That is a cost savings of $14,500!

Overall, we saved this client $43,100 on these three roles. Skilled trades are tough, but that doesn't mean you should be paying a fortune to find the right candidate.

If you need help recruiting for production, skilled trades, or engineering at your manufacturing facility, we have an entire team dedicated to this area.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

The LEGACY staffing industry is going to HATE this post...

At the bottom of every initial Inmail I send to candidates, it states:

***We work directly with every Hiring Manager. I am happy to share the employer's contact info if you prefer to apply directly.

Candidates and Job Seekers:

If a recruiter contacted you and is not offering this, you should ask yourself:

1. What are they hiding and why don’t they trust me?

2. Is there really a relationship with the “client”?

3. Do I want to be represented by someone who has to hide information from me and their “client”?

Employers and Hiring Managers:

If you are working with an external recruiter and they are not offering this, you should ask yourself:

1. What else are they hiding from me and the candidates?

2. Should someone who doesn't trust us be representing our company?

3. How many candidates are we missing out on because our legacy staffing resource doesn't trust us and candidates don't trust them?

Not all candidates like working with external recruiters. However, there is an easy fix if you aren't in the Legacy Staffing Industry! Not only do I include the note about contacting employers directly, but I also include the name of the employer and the name of our main contact at that company or the Hiring Manager in every InMail I send. It's funny how when you share the company name and are transparent with candidates, they become much more willing to reply and communicate with you. There will always be a few who still want to apply directly and that accomplishes the goal of expanding the qualified candidate pool as much as possible.

I couldn't be more proud of the team after this one. We had a client come to us who had been looking to fill a role for nearly a year and on top of that had never worked with an agency previously to working with OTHR.

We had to find a senior electrical controls engineer with a PE and with a background in water & wastewater. These are incredibly tough roles to fill, but after some digging, we found the ideal candidate for them. In addition to finding them a great fit for their organization, we changed their perception of what it is like to work with a recruiting agency. It is now a relationship our organization will cherish for years to come.

The other big advantage to partnering with On The Hook versus a traditional agency is that we placed this candidate on our Fractional Recruiter Model. Their total cost to find this individual was $11,750. When compared to a traditional 25% placement fee, that is a $23,250 cost savings.

Each week, we help clients across the country on this innovative model. If you are looking for a more effective and cost-saving approach to recruiting, you need to learn more about On The Hook Recruiting's Hourly approach.

SINGLE client savings = $142,500.00

We successfully helped one of our clients hire 14 skilled positions across multiple departments; saving a total of $142,500.00 due to our Fractional Recruiter Model.

The 14 positions totaled roughly $1.24M in salaries and were tied to a major project with a short time frame.

Could your organization benefit from similar results and cost savings?

Our team is here to help with our Fractional Recruiter Model.

Positions we filled for this client include:

• Customer Service Coordinator (2)
• Regional Sales Manager (East Central)
• Regional Sales Manager (North East)
• Controls Engineering (2)
• Safety Controls Engineering
• Mechanical Design Engineer
• Electro-Mechanical Engineer
• Data Scientist
• Director of Advanced Manufacturing
• Business Systems Analyst
• IT Business Systems Analyst
• Director of IT

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

In all the years I have been recruiting, I have yet to speak to a hiring manager that has NOT used a staffing company.

Yet, I rarely encounter a hiring manager who is thrilled with their partnership. I would say two out of 10 are happy. Most people I meet with call it a necessary evil....OUCH.

Why do clients feel this way? Most recruiting companies follow the same process. For example, how many times have you heard this? "I have the perfect candidate for your job opening." It is called skill market, candidate spotlight, candidate marketing, and the list goes on and on.

The reality is, they are shopping that candidate around to the highest bidder, or sometimes the candidate is not even in the market for a new role. Trust me, I have seen it. It is a terrible approach for the candidate and client.

So before you engage with the same old process, you really should speak with my team first. It is time for you to try a different approach. An approach where the candidates we source are exclusive to your organization, one where your meeting with your recruiter weekly, and most importantly, a process tailored to your organization.

Three reasons you should NEVER work with a recruiter or agency that hides employer information:

1. This means they don’t trust you. (candidate or employer)

2. This also means they don’t have a good relationship with the employer (their “client”).

3. You will have a HUGE extra price tag attached to you. (This is true working with any legacy staffing agency.)

At OTHR we work off of complete transparency and no HUGE placement fees. This creates more knowledgeable candidates and a larger candidate pool for our clients. If you haven’t experienced a true partnership-focused staffing vendor, our team is ready to surprise you!

(PS: We all know confidential searches need to be handled differently.)

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

Should there be a limit to "remote work" expectations?

If you ask any candidate or employee, the vast majority will tell you their work can be done 100% remotely. After the last few years, I have been shocked by some of these "100% remote" requests, and here are a few examples:

Fixture Designer/Engineer: Several candidates told me they weren't interested unless this position was 100% remote. They expected the employer (manufacturing company) to constantly mail them components, parts, supplies, tools, etc., for them to work 100% from home. Then they would mail back the finished work. All of these candidates were located within a reasonable and commutable distance from the employer.

Resource Efficiency Manager: This search was identifying candidates to work on US Military Bases, doing energy efficiency analysis on all of the base buildings. This includes mechanical systems, electrical systems, utilities, windows, solar, etc. Many candidates were only interested if it was 100% remote.

Obviously, some of the work for both of these roles could be done remotely, like report writing, design work, etc. Beyond that, could anyone be successful in these positions by never stepping foot on company property or a client location?

In all the years I have been recruiting, I have yet to speak to a hiring manager who has NOT used a staffing company.

Yet, I rarely encounter a hiring manager who is thrilled with their partnership. I would say two out of 10 are happy. Most people I meet with call it a necessary evil....OUCH.

Why do clients feel this way? Most recruiting companies follow the same process. For example, how many times have you heard this? "I have the perfect candidate for your job opening." It is called skill market, candidate spotlight, candidate marketing, and the list goes on and on.

The reality is, they are shopping that candidate around to the highest bidder, or sometimes the candidate is not even in the market for a new role. Trust me, I have seen it. It is a terrible approach for the candidate and client.

So before you engage with the same old process, you really should speak with my team first. It is time for you to try a different approach. An approach where the candidates we source are exclusive to your organization, one where you're meeting with your recruiter weekly, and most importantly, a process tailored to your organization.

We have taken on some challenging projects at OTHR, but this may be the hardest one yet...

Senior Environmental Scientist: PFAS, PE License, Security Clearance, Serve as a technical advisor on environmental policies and standards, Ensure regulatory applicability to the Federal Government, etc... to name a few of the must-haves.

Before onboarding this client, they had tried several other "specialty" agencies with no luck.

Not only did we find them the candidate they were looking for, but we also saved them $27,000 with the OTHR Hourly Recruiting Model.

Most specialty firms will charge you 30% of the yearly salary for this skill set and require a portion to be paid upfront.

With our process, our client only paid 12% of the annual salary.

Hiring shouldn't cost a fortune.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

After seeing this EXACT SAME post by 23 different people on my feed, I had to say something...

This specific copy of the post is by a VP trying to say that bad performers should not be terminated.

Yes, you read that correctly.

He then assumes that if someone is terminated, they are shouted at, humiliated, and misunderstood.

Do you really want to live in a world where "terminating an employee due to performance" is shunned?

Do you really want to live in a world where a bad performer is blamed on "how YOU treated THEM", rather than how they broke your trust in doing the job they were hired to do?

Do you really want to live in a world where terminating a bad performer is somehow viewed as "costing them their dignity?

Personal responsibility goes a long way in how successful someone is in their career and life. I understand that success is measured in different ways, but performing poorly at work and then blaming it on anyone but yourself is not going to result in you becoming closer to whatever "success" means for you.

Staffing Agency Showdown: On The Hook vs. The Usual Suspects

Buckle up, because we’re about to take you on a rollercoaster ride through the highs and lows of traditional staffing vs. On The Hook Recruiting!

Legacy Staffing Agencies:

- Fee Frenzy: “Hey, we’ll take 20-30% of that first-year salary. No biggie!”

- One-Size-Fits-All: “You get what you get, and you don’t get upset. Next!”

- Minimal Effort: "Here are 10 resumes that all your competitors have seen and didn't want to hire. They are REALLY strong candidates!"

On The Hook Recruiting:

- Cost Model Magic: “Hey, we’re all about transparency! Pay an hourly rate and cap out at 12% of the first-year salary. Oh, and if we fill the position early, you only pay for the hours we worked. Easy peasy!”

- Personal Touch: “We get to know you, your team, and your culture. Then we find candidates who are basically the human version of your favorite coffee blend.”

- Data Ownership: "Your organization is the ONLY employer that will see your candidates from us. Now that's a partnership!"

Your challenge: Hiring in 2025 without ridiculous costs.

Your solution: A true partner, focused on your hiring goals and budget.

OTHR: 1 client, 4 positions filled, and $53,100.00 saved... so far!

One of our clients requested a cost analysis and I decided it was worth sharing to give Hiring Managers hope that another option exists.

Despite what you read on LinkedIn, hiring and recruiting in 2025 doesn't have to be challenging or expensive. Legacy recruiting firms LOVE to sell you that narrative so they can charge RIDICULOUS fees.

This is a cost analysis for one of the long-term projects we are currently working on. This employer is hiring PMs for environmental engineering-related work at several different locations. Based on the schedule, we have filled four positions and have two more left. Their savings will continue to increase drastically as we finish this project.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]

A great example of how our Hourly Recruiting Model delivers value to our clients!

This may be the most powerful example of how our approach sets us apart. We took on a Tooling Design Engineer role back in October. This role had been open for two years! Internal recruiters had tried to tackle it and countless agencies took a stab at it. Our client had very specific requirements and they were happy holding out until they found it.

By December, we had an offer on the table for a candidate. Unfortunately, he turned it down. A few short weeks later, we had another candidate with an offer on the table. The best part for our client; they only spent $14,400 for us to find this individual. That is a $10,600 cost savings when compared to the competition's pricing. To say the team was excited would be an understatement. Rumor has it, they even brought in cake to celebrate!

The moral of the story, we are going to stick with you until the role is filled and we will do it at a price point that makes the relationship sustainable.

[Have LinkedIn? You can like, share, or comment on this story HERE.]